HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
27-13 | Road
125
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
13-27 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
ROCKETS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
24.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.6%
POR By 1-7 points
12.9%
POR By 8-14 points
4.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
117.34
HOUSTON
Portland
108.82
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Portland
117
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
POR @ HOU
99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026
HOU @ POR
105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026
HOU @ POR
102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025
POR @ HOU
116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025
HOU @ POR
125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.4% more
Houston: 5.5
vs
Portland: 3.6
Steals (L5)
+31.7% more
Houston: 11.5
vs
Portland: 7.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Houston: 50.1%
vs
Portland: 42.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Houston: 40.4%
vs
Portland: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
117.3
125
POR Score
108.8
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 40.4
33.3 / 45.2
Assists
23.4 / 24.7
28.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.5
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 50.1
45.3 / 44.4
Free Throw %
81.4 / 72.6
72.2 / 68.2
Rebounding
41.2 / 43.6
40.0 / 61.0
Steals
7.9 / 11.5
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 14.0
19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
HOU
POR
HOU
ML
53%
56-49
61%
69-44
55%
49-40
59%
51-35
ATS
62%
65-39-1
62%
70-43
55%
49-40
59%
51-35
TTL
56%
58-46-1
51%
58-55
100%
89-0
100%
86-0
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