DALLAS
STARSDAL
28-15-1 | Road
3
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
27-18-1 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Scott Wedgewood
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 6.08 | 0.833 | -- |
| Scott Wedgewood | None-None | 3.01 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.08
GAA
Ldr 3.01
0.833
Save %
Ldr 0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
AVALANCHE
100%
STARS
--
AVALANCHE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.6%
DAL By 2-3 goals
26.9%
COL By 1 goal
13.6%
COL By 2-3 goals
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.64
DALLAS
Colorado
2.89
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Avalanche
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Avalanche (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
COL @ DAL
2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026
DAL @ COL
2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026
COL @ DAL
5 - 4
Oct 11, 2025
DAL @ COL
5 - 4
Oct 4, 2025
COL @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+21.9%
Dallas: 23.5%
vs
Colorado: 1.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.0% more
Dallas: 29.4
vs
Colorado: 26.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.0%
Dallas: 49.2%
vs
Colorado: 45.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.8% more
Colorado: 14.0
vs
Dallas: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.6
3
COL Score
2.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 11.5
17.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
45.1 / 49.2
35.8 / 64.2
Hits
16.8 / 15.4
17.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
1.6 / 23.5
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.4 / 29.4
36.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DAL
COL
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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