PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
19-20-8 | Road
1
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
30-10-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 3.02 | 0.903 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.947 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.02
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.903
Save %
Ldr 0.947
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
PENGUINS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.2%
PIT By 2-3 goals
24.4%
WSH By 1 goal
14.9%
WSH By 2-3 goals
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.35
PITTSBURGH
Washington
2.83
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
PIT @ WSH
3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026
PIT @ WSH
0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ PIT
6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025
WSH @ PIT
3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
WSH @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+27.5%
Pittsburgh: 43.4%
vs
Washington: 15.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+20.7% more
Pittsburgh: 5.0
vs
Washington: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+20.2% more
Pittsburgh: 22.6
vs
Washington: 18.0
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.4% more
Pittsburgh: 26.4
vs
Washington: 23.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
1
WSH Score
2.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.9 / 14.8
17.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
52.1 / 54.8
54.7 / 45.3
Hits
18.0 / 22.6
27.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
15.9 / 43.4
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.1 / 26.4
32.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 5.0
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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