DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
24-16 | Road
133
MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-19 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
HEAT
100%
NUGGETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.2 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -11.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
21.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
9.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
2.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117.72
DENVER
Miami
106.54
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Miami
106
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.2
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
DEN @ MIA
123 - 147
Nov 5, 2025
MIA @ DEN
112 - 122
Jan 17, 2025
DEN @ MIA
133 - 113
Nov 8, 2024
MIA @ DEN
122 - 135
Mar 13, 2024
DEN @ MIA
100 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+18.1% more
Denver: 6.1
vs
Miami: 5.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Denver: 51.5%
vs
Miami: 46.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Denver: 41.1%
vs
Miami: 38.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.5%
Miami: 82.9%
vs
Denver: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.7
133
MIA Score
106.5
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 41.1
27.3 / 48.5
Assists
26.0 / 26.2
30.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.0 / 6.1
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 51.5
49.5 / 54.3
Free Throw %
82.9 / 73.4
100.0 / 89.5
Rebounding
43.3 / 45.3
41.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.9
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 17.0
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DEN
MIA
DEN
ML
48%
46-50
54%
57-48
59%
48-34
55%
47-39
ATS
51%
49-47
63%
65-38-2
59%
48-34
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
57-39
54%
56-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…