PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
18-20-8 | Road
5
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
17-22-5 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 4.25 | 0.778 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.25
--
Save %
0.778
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
SABRES
0%
PENGUINS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
PIT By 1 goal
10.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
7.6%
BUF By 1 goal
19.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
31.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.6
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
3.84
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUF @ PIT
5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026
PIT @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025
BUF @ PIT
2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025
BUF @ PIT
4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025
PIT @ BUF
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.0% more
Buffalo: 15.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.6
Hits (L5)
+22.5% more
Pittsburgh: 23.3
vs
Buffalo: 18.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.1% more
Pittsburgh: 30.1
vs
Buffalo: 26.1
Power Play % (L5)
+12.9%
Pittsburgh: 27.6%
vs
Buffalo: 14.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.6
5
BUF Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.4 / 13.6
14.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
44.8 / 54.6
44.8 / 55.2
Hits
18.1 / 23.3
19.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
14.7 / 27.6
20.0 / 75.0
Shots on Goal
26.1 / 30.1
42.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.5
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PIT
BUF
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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