Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Pistons IND @ DET

INDIANA

PACERSIND

22-19  |  Road

111
FINAL
Thu, Jan 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

21-19  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
PACERS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

65.2%

Pistons Cover

34.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

27.4%

IND By 8-14 points

21.5%

DET By 1-7 points

20.3%

DET By 8-14 points

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
118.7
INDIANA
114.8
DETROIT
Simulated Score
124
INDIANA
113
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 DET @ IND 133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026 IND @ DET 78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025 DET @ IND 122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025 IND @ DET 112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025 DET @ IND 119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
Indiana: 29.9 vs Detroit: 25.9
Steals (L5) +12.3% more
Indiana: 9.5 vs Detroit: 8.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Detroit: 14.8 vs Indiana: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5) +10.0%
Detroit: 81.5% vs Indiana: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 118.7 111
DET Score 114.8 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.8 / 37.2 25.0 / 43.3
Assists 25.9 / 29.9 22.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.8 7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 49.2 39.6 / 46.1
Free Throw % 81.5 / 71.6 86.4 / 72.7
Rebounding 42.4 / 43.4 55.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.4 / 9.5 3.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 13.0 19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
IND
DET
IND
ML
55% 64-53
48% 47-50
49% 47-49
54% 45-38
ATS
53% 60-54-3
59% 57-40
49% 47-49
54% 45-38
TTL
60% 70-46-1
54% 52-45
100% 96-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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