Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Kings HOU @ SAC

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

27-12  |  Road

127
FINAL
Thu, Jan 16 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

20-20  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

75.9%

Kings Cover

24.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.4%

SAC By 1-7 points

15.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

5.7%

AI Model Projected Score
120.57
HOUSTON
113.54
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
108
HOUSTON
105
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 SAC @ HOU 97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026 HOU @ SAC 98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025 HOU @ SAC 124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025 SAC @ HOU 95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025 SAC @ HOU 113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.6% more
Houston: 12.3 vs Sacramento: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +22.5% more
Houston: 13.9 vs Sacramento: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Houston: 42.3% vs Sacramento: 37.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Houston: 48.7% vs Sacramento: 45.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 120.6 127
SAC Score 113.5 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 42.3 42.4 / 36.4
Assists 28.2 / 25.1 32.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.2 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 48.7 50.0 / 52.7
Free Throw % 81.7 / 73.6 90.9 / 70.8
Rebounding 49.6 / 42.5 44.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.7 / 12.3 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 13.9 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
HOU
SAC
HOU
ML
55% 55-45
61% 69-44
61% 50-32
59% 51-35
ATS
54% 52-45-3
62% 70-43
61% 50-32
59% 51-35
TTL
58% 57-42-1
51% 58-55
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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