WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
29-10-5 | Road
1
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
22-18-3 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00
GAA
--
1.000
Save %
--
1
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
SENATORS
0%
CAPITALS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
WSH By 1 goal
13.4%
WSH By 2-3 goals
11.1%
OTT By 1 goal
19.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.19
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
2.97
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
OTT @ WSH
1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026
WSH @ OTT
3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
OTT @ WSH
7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025
OTT @ WSH
4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025
WSH @ OTT
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+76.9% more
Ottawa: 25.7
vs
Washington: 14.5
Takeaways (L5)
+24.9% more
Ottawa: 5.6
vs
Washington: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.5% more
Ottawa: 27.0
vs
Washington: 21.7
Power Play % (L5)
+11.4%
Washington: 23.8%
vs
Ottawa: 12.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.2
1
OTT Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 17.9
12.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
48.8 / 51.8
47.5 / 52.5
Hits
25.7 / 14.5
20.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
1240.0 / 2377.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.0 / 21.7
24.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 4.5
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
WSH
OTT
WSH
ML
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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