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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

28-11  |  Road

97
FINAL
Wed, Jan 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

9-31  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
CELTICS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

69.0%

Raptors Cover

31.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.0%

TOR By 1-7 points

18.6%

TOR By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.85
BOSTON
108.88
TORONTO
Simulated Score
104
BOSTON
107
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.9% more
Boston: 6.7 vs Toronto: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5) +14.8%
Boston: 81.1% vs Toronto: 66.3%
Rebounding (L5) +12.7% more
Boston: 47.0 vs Toronto: 41.0
Assists (L5) +20.2% more
Toronto: 28.4 vs Boston: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 113.9 97
TOR Score 108.9 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 31.2 32.4 / 34.8
Assists 28.4 / 23.7 35.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.3 / 6.7 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 44.4 50.6 / 39.6
Free Throw % 66.3 / 81.1 60.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 47.0 56.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.6 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.8 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
55% 57-47
57% 61-46
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
ATS
61% 62-40-2
59% 61-43-3
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
TTL
60% 62-42
56% 60-47
100% 87-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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