HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
26-12 | Road
128
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
24-15 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
22.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
19.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
121.42
HOUSTON
Denver
116.69
DENVER
Simulated Score
Houston
107
HOUSTON
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 238.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.5% more
Houston: 11.4
vs
Denver: 8.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Houston: 41.1%
vs
Denver: 37.4%
Assists (L5)
+19.7% more
Denver: 28.3
vs
Houston: 23.7
Blocks (L5)
+17.7% more
Denver: 5.6
vs
Houston: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
121.4
128
DEN Score
116.7
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 41.1
48.3 / 44.7
Assists
28.3 / 23.7
22.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.8
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 47.0
53.3 / 52.1
Free Throw %
76.7 / 72.1
66.7 / 76.5
Rebounding
50.0 / 43.7
36.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.4 / 11.4
4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 15.4
20.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
HOU
DEN
HOU
ML
54%
57-48
61%
69-44
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
70-43
55%
47-39
59%
51-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
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