MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-18 | Road
108
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
20-17 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
LAKERS
100%
HEAT
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
23.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.1%
LAL By 1-7 points
11.3%
LAL By 8-14 points
3.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
114.42
MIAMI
Los Angeles
104.84
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Los Angeles
110
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
LAL @ MIA
134 - 126
Nov 2, 2025
MIA @ LAL
120 - 130
Jan 15, 2025
MIA @ LAL
108 - 117
Dec 4, 2024
LAL @ MIA
93 - 134
Jan 3, 2024
MIA @ LAL
110 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.6% more
Miami: 9.2
vs
Los Angeles: 7.0
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Miami: 46.4
vs
Los Angeles: 40.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Miami: 77.7%
vs
Los Angeles: 74.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Los Angeles: 46.5%
vs
Miami: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
114.4
108
LAL Score
104.8
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 34.9
38.2 / 44.4
Assists
24.7 / 26.5
33.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.5
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 43.3
52.2 / 53.4
Free Throw %
74.8 / 77.7
71.4 / 93.3
Rebounding
40.2 / 46.4
34.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.2
12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.7
7.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MIA
LAL
MIA
ML
61%
68-43
48%
46-50
54%
49-42
59%
48-34
ATS
61%
67-43-1
51%
49-47
54%
49-42
59%
48-34
TTL
61%
66-43-2
59%
57-39
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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