PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
19-19 | Road
117
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
19-19 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
HAWKS
0%
SUNS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHX By 1-7 points
17.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
7.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
109.08
PHOENIX
Atlanta
114.96
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
PHX @ ATL
103 - 110
Nov 16, 2025
ATL @ PHX
124 - 122
Jan 14, 2025
PHX @ ATL
117 - 122
Jan 9, 2025
ATL @ PHX
115 - 123
Mar 21, 2024
ATL @ PHX
115 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.9% more
Atlanta: 10.1
vs
Phoenix: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Atlanta: 83.0%
vs
Phoenix: 80.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Atlanta: 39.2%
vs
Phoenix: 37.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Phoenix: 49.6%
vs
Atlanta: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
109.1
117
ATL Score
115.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 37.4
41.5 / 37.1
Assists
31.3 / 29.4
22.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.4 / 5.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 49.6
43.9 / 51.2
Free Throw %
83.0 / 80.7
73.1 / 66.7
Rebounding
39.3 / 40.1
54.0 / 37.0
Steals
10.1 / 7.7
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 12.6
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHX
ATL
PHX
ML
50%
52-52
57%
60-45
55%
48-40
51%
45-43
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
59-43-3
55%
48-40
51%
45-43
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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