DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
23-15 | Road
118
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
22-17 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
21.6%
DAL By 1-7 points
20.1%
DAL By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117.64
DENVER
Dallas
113.65
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Denver
116
DENVER
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+12.7% more
Denver: 8.1
vs
Dallas: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+10.7% more
Denver: 49.5
vs
Dallas: 44.2
Assists (L5)
+8.5% more
Denver: 28.5
vs
Dallas: 26.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Denver: 50.0%
vs
Dallas: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.6
118
DAL Score
113.7
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 33.8
28.1 / 44.8
Assists
26.1 / 28.5
27.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.6 / 5.0
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 50.0
42.2 / 51.8
Free Throw %
78.0 / 71.9
63.6 / 86.4
Rebounding
44.2 / 49.5
30.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.1
14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 13.2
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DEN
DAL
DEN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
57-48
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
ATS
67%
68-34
63%
65-38-2
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
60-41-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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