Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Rockets MEM @ HOU

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

25-14  |  Road

118
FINAL
Mon, Jan 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

25-12  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Houston)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

28.6%

Rockets Cover

71.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MEM By 1-7 points

17.5%

MEM By 8-14 points

7.2%

HOU By 1-7 points

27.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

23.8%

AI Model Projected Score
116.56
MEMPHIS
122.2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
107
MEMPHIS
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MEM @ HOU 101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026 HOU @ MEM 119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026 MEM @ HOU 99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025 HOU @ MEM 124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025 HOU @ MEM 119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.1% more
Memphis: 5.2 vs Houston: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +30.8% more
Memphis: 16.8 vs Houston: 11.6
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Memphis: 25.2 vs Houston: 21.5
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Memphis: 76.2% vs Houston: 72.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 116.6 118
HOU Score 122.2 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 36.1 51.6 / 43.8
Assists 21.5 / 25.2 28.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.2 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 46.8 50.6 / 53.6
Free Throw % 72.6 / 76.2 71.0 / 66.7
Rebounding 45.5 / 47.3 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.7 / 10.4 13.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 16.8 23.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MEM
HOU
MEM
ML
61% 69-44
57% 59-44
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
ATS
62% 70-43
63% 65-38
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
TTL
51% 58-55
70% 71-31-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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