MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-17 | Road
98
LA
CLIPPERSLAC
20-17 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
CLIPPERS
0%
HEAT
--
CLIPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
LA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (LA)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAC -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)
MIA By 1-7 points
20.5%
MIA By 8-14 points
9.7%
LAC By 1-7 points
27.4%
LAC By 8-14 points
21.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110.07
MIAMI
LA
113.8
LA
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
LA
109
LA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Clippers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Clippers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Clippers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim
Clippers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 1, 2025
LAC @ MIA
123 - 140
Nov 3, 2025
MIA @ LAC
120 - 119
Mar 12, 2025
LAC @ MIA
119 - 104
Jan 13, 2025
MIA @ LAC
98 - 109
Feb 4, 2024
LAC @ MIA
103 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
LA: 14.7
vs
Miami: 12.6
Blocks (L5)
+8.2% more
LA: 5.7
vs
Miami: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
LA: 77.3%
vs
Miami: 74.9%
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
Miami: 28.8
vs
LA: 21.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.1
98
LAC Score
113.8
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 35.9
36.1 / 32.7
Assists
21.7 / 28.8
28.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.2
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 45.5
48.4 / 38.8
Free Throw %
77.3 / 74.9
60.0 / 83.3
Rebounding
44.0 / 45.1
48.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.3 / 10.4
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 12.6
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
LAC
41-42-0
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
MIA
LAC
MIA
ML
60%
59-40
48%
46-50
55%
45-37
59%
48-34
ATS
66%
65-33-1
51%
49-47
55%
45-37
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
58-40-1
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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