DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
22-15 | Road
112
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
22-16 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
19.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
21.9%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117.34
DENVER
Dallas
114.5
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.2% more
Denver: 9.2
vs
Dallas: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+18.0% more
Denver: 31.3
vs
Dallas: 25.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Denver: 50.5%
vs
Dallas: 46.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Denver: 39.7%
vs
Dallas: 37.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.3
112
DAL Score
114.5
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 39.7
35.3 / 21.9
Assists
25.6 / 31.3
27.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.9
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 50.5
41.2 / 48.9
Free Throw %
79.0 / 75.3
76.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
47.8 / 46.8
37.0 / 55.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.2
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 12.9
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DEN
DAL
DEN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
57-48
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
ATS
67%
68-34
63%
65-38-2
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
60-41-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…