INDIANA
PACERSIND
21-18 | Road
108
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
33-4 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PACERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
13.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
26.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
123.36
INDIANA
Cleveland
124.34
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
109
INDIANA
Cleveland
114
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 247.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+9.1% more
Cleveland: 32.6
vs
Indiana: 29.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Cleveland: 76.9%
vs
Indiana: 72.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Cleveland: 39.7%
vs
Indiana: 35.7%
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
Indiana: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
123.4
108
CLE Score
124.3
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 35.7
26.8 / 31.4
Assists
32.6 / 29.9
24.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.0
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 51.0
39.8 / 46.7
Free Throw %
76.9 / 72.5
88.9 / 61.1
Rebounding
42.8 / 44.9
44.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.4
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.7
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60%
69-46
48%
47-50
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
57-40
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
52-45
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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