CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
8-27 | Road
113
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
18-19 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
SUNS
0%
HORNETS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
CHA By 1-7 points
11.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
3.5%
PHX By 1-7 points
23.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
99.82
CHARLOTTE
Phoenix
109.49
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Phoenix
123
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 209.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PHX @ CHA
107 - 127
Mar 8, 2026
CHA @ PHX
99 - 111
Jan 12, 2025
CHA @ PHX
113 - 120
Jan 7, 2025
PHX @ CHA
104 - 115
Mar 15, 2024
PHX @ CHA
107 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.5% more
Phoenix: 28.5
vs
Charlotte: 22.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
Phoenix: 50.2%
vs
Charlotte: 40.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Phoenix: 35.4%
vs
Charlotte: 30.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+21.3% more
Charlotte: 51.6
vs
Phoenix: 40.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
99.8
113
PHX Score
109.5
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 30.3
41.5 / 37.5
Assists
28.5 / 22.6
31.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.0
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 40.6
48.3 / 44.6
Free Throw %
77.9 / 78.3
86.4 / 80.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 51.6
39.0 / 52.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.6
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 15.5
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
CHA
PHX
CHA
ML
57%
60-45
61%
60-39
51%
45-43
48%
40-44
ATS
58%
59-43-3
60%
59-40
51%
45-43
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
61-42-2
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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