MIAMI
HEATMIA
19-17 | Road
119
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
13-24 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HEAT
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
19.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.1%
POR By 1-7 points
7.4%
POR By 8-14 points
1.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
114.51
MIAMI
Portland
102.03
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Miami
103
MIAMI
Portland
114
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
MIA @ POR
110 - 127
Nov 8, 2025
POR @ MIA
131 - 136
Jan 21, 2025
POR @ MIA
116 - 107
Jan 11, 2025
MIA @ POR
119 - 98
Mar 29, 2024
POR @ MIA
82 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Miami: 9.0
vs
Portland: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+9.6% more
Miami: 27.6
vs
Portland: 25.0
Turnovers (L5)
+15.0% more
Portland: 15.4
vs
Miami: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Portland: 39.6%
vs
Miami: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
114.5
119
POR Score
102.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 32.3
28.9 / 43.2
Assists
25.0 / 27.6
24.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 44.3
37.9 / 47.8
Free Throw %
77.1 / 74.9
68.4 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.4 / 46.2
51.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.0
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 13.4
17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MIA
POR
MIA
ML
53%
56-49
48%
46-50
55%
49-40
59%
48-34
ATS
62%
65-39-1
51%
49-47
55%
49-40
59%
48-34
TTL
56%
58-46-1
59%
57-39
100%
89-0
100%
82-0
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