OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
19-18-3 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
18-17-8 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
SENATORS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
OTT By 1 goal
17.2%
OTT By 2-3 goals
17.9%
PIT By 1 goal
17.8%
PIT By 2-3 goals
19.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2.56
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
2.63
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
PIT @ OTT
4 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
OTT @ PIT
3 - 2
Dec 18, 2025
PIT @ OTT
0 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
OTT @ PIT
0 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
OTT @ PIT
5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+51.3%
Pittsburgh: 68.2%
vs
Ottawa: 16.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+34.1% more
Pittsburgh: 17.7
vs
Ottawa: 13.2
Hits (L5)
+36.1% more
Ottawa: 25.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.5
Takeaways (L5)
+29.0% more
Ottawa: 5.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.6
5
PIT Score
2.6
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 13.2
11.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
46.6 / 52.3
51.1 / 48.9
Hits
16.5 / 25.9
30.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
68.2 / 16.9
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
25.1 / 29.4
29.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
OTT
PIT
OTT
ML
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
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