SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
18-19 | Road
114
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
27-10 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
CELTICS
0%
KINGS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
SAC By 1-7 points
18.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
7.6%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.1%
BOS By 8-14 points
23.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
113.63
SACRAMENTO
Boston
118.95
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Boston
124
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
SAC @ BOS
93 - 112
Jan 1, 2026
BOS @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 24, 2025
BOS @ SAC
113 - 95
Jan 10, 2025
SAC @ BOS
114 - 97
Apr 5, 2024
SAC @ BOS
100 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.5% more
Boston: 6.2
vs
Sacramento: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+14.9% more
Sacramento: 29.4
vs
Boston: 25.0
Turnovers (L5)
+14.0% more
Sacramento: 14.3
vs
Boston: 12.3
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Sacramento: 49.0
vs
Boston: 42.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
113.6
114
BOS Score
119.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 37.0
26.8 / 38.3
Assists
25.0 / 29.4
22.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.2 / 5.5
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.4
40.5 / 43.1
Free Throw %
79.5 / 82.8
81.8 / 88.9
Rebounding
42.9 / 49.0
43.0 / 56.0
Steals
8.7 / 9.6
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 14.3
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SAC
BOS
SAC
ML
57%
61-46
55%
55-45
53%
47-41
61%
50-32
ATS
59%
61-43-3
54%
52-45-3
53%
47-41
61%
50-32
TTL
56%
60-47
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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