TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
8-29 | Road
126
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
32-4 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -13.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-7 points
5.9%
TOR By 8-14 points
1.4%
CLE By 1-7 points
17.1%
CLE By 8-14 points
26.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
110.25
TORONTO
Cleveland
124.14
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
98
TORONTO
Cleveland
104
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.9
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 202.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.6% more
Cleveland: 33.4
vs
Toronto: 27.2
Rebounding (L5)
+17.6% more
Cleveland: 43.1
vs
Toronto: 36.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Cleveland: 39.5%
vs
Toronto: 34.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Cleveland: 50.5%
vs
Toronto: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
110.3
126
CLE Score
124.1
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 34.7
40.0 / 45.2
Assists
33.4 / 27.2
31.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 47.5
52.8 / 59.6
Free Throw %
75.3 / 75.4
80.0 / 46.2
Rebounding
43.1 / 36.7
42.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.6 / 8.8
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.8
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60%
69-46
55%
57-47
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
61%
62-40-2
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
62-42
100%
99-0
100%
87-0
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