Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Grizzlies HOU @ MEM

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

24-12  |  Road

119
FINAL
Thu, Jan 9 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

24-13  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
ROCKETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Memphis)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

35.4%

Grizzlies Cover

64.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

HOU By 1-7 points

20.5%

HOU By 8-14 points

9.6%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

21.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119.21
HOUSTON
122.95
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
112
HOUSTON
117
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MEM @ HOU 101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026 HOU @ MEM 119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026 MEM @ HOU 99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025 HOU @ MEM 124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025 HOU @ MEM 119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.9% more
Memphis: 5.5 vs Houston: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +65.1% more
Memphis: 18.0 vs Houston: 10.9
Assists (L5) +27.9% more
Memphis: 27.9 vs Houston: 21.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.2% more
Memphis: 50.5 vs Houston: 46.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 119.2 119
MEM Score 123.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 34.7 31.3 / 38.2
Assists 27.9 / 21.8 20.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.3 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 46.6 50.0 / 42.7
Free Throw % 77.3 / 79.7 70.0 / 58.5
Rebounding 50.5 / 46.3 43.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.2 / 9.5 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 10.9 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
HOU
MEM
HOU
ML
57% 59-44
61% 69-44
50% 41-41
59% 51-35
ATS
63% 65-38
62% 70-43
50% 41-41
59% 51-35
TTL
70% 71-31-1
51% 58-55
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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