ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
19-18 | Road
115
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
16-19 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
SUNS
100%
HAWKS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.1%
PHX By 1-7 points
18.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
7.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
113.68
ATLANTA
Phoenix
108.62
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Atlanta
98
ATLANTA
Phoenix
105
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
PHX @ ATL
103 - 110
Nov 16, 2025
ATL @ PHX
124 - 122
Jan 14, 2025
PHX @ ATL
117 - 122
Jan 9, 2025
ATL @ PHX
115 - 123
Mar 21, 2024
ATL @ PHX
115 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.6% more
Atlanta: 9.6
vs
Phoenix: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+13.8% more
Atlanta: 6.6
vs
Phoenix: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+10.3% more
Atlanta: 14.2
vs
Phoenix: 12.7
Assists (L5)
+9.1% more
Atlanta: 31.0
vs
Phoenix: 28.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
113.7
115
PHX Score
108.6
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 35.3
39.4 / 46.9
Assists
28.2 / 31.0
33.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.7 / 6.6
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 45.9
57.6 / 48.8
Free Throw %
83.9 / 77.5
80.0 / 94.1
Rebounding
41.8 / 42.9
42.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.6 / 9.6
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 14.2
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
ATL
PHX
ATL
ML
57%
60-45
50%
52-52
51%
45-43
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
59-43-3
53%
55-48-1
51%
45-43
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
61-42-2
53%
55-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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