BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
15-21-5 | Road
4
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
19-17-3 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00
GAA
--
1.000
Save %
--
1
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
SENATORS
0%
SABRES
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
BUF By 1 goal
13.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
11.4%
OTT By 1 goal
19.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.56
BUFFALO
Ottawa
3.3
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
5
BUFFALO
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+50.1% more
Ottawa: 5.3
vs
Buffalo: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+44.0% more
Ottawa: 25.3
vs
Buffalo: 17.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.8% more
Ottawa: 26.6
vs
Buffalo: 24.4
Power Play % (L5)
+9.5%
Buffalo: 34.7%
vs
Ottawa: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.6
4
OTT Score
3.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.3 / 15.7
9.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
47.7 / 47.6
61.5 / 38.5
Hits
25.3 / 17.6
27.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
2527.0 / 3472.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.6 / 24.4
35.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 3.5
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
BUF
OTT
BUF
ML
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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