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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

25-12-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Jan 9 • 7:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

17-17-8  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Ty Emberson
GOALTENDER

Ty Emberson

#49 | Defense
@
Owen Pickering
GOALTENDER

Owen Pickering

#38 | D
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ty Emberson None-None -- -- --
Owen Pickering None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
📊
PENGUINS
100%
OILERS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Edmonton)
OilersEDM (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

93.1%

Penguins Cover

6.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around EDM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

EDM By 1 goal

12.3%

EDM By 2-3 goals

37.4%

PIT By 1 goal

2.9%

PIT By 2-3 goals

1.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.12
EDMONTON
2.16
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oilers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oilers (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 PIT @ EDM 6 - 2
Dec 16, 2025 EDM @ PIT 6 - 4
Jan 9, 2025 EDM @ PIT 3 - 5
Oct 25, 2024 PIT @ EDM 0 - 4
Mar 10, 2024 EDM @ PIT 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +49.9% more
Edmonton: 8.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +25.3% more
Edmonton: 33.0 vs Pittsburgh: 24.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.9% more
Edmonton: 16.1 vs Pittsburgh: 14.5
Faceoff % (L5) +7.9%
Edmonton: 55.5% vs Pittsburgh: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 5.1 3
PIT Score 2.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.5 / 16.1 24.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 47.5 / 55.5 44.8 / 55.2
Hits 16.8 / 10.9 16.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 52.3 / 34.1 100.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 24.6 / 33.0 26.0 / 43.0
Takeaways 4.0 / 8.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
EDM
PIT
EDM
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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