Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Texans LAC @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

11-6  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Jan 11 • 4:30 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

10-7  |  Home

32
Key Game
Del'Shawn Phillips
KEY GAME

Del'Shawn Phillips

#53 | Linebacker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Del'Shawn Phillips None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
CHARGERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

57.2%

Texans Cover

42.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.9%

LAC By 7-13 points

17.2%

HOU By 1-6 points

15.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24.52
LOS ANGELES
21.97
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
17
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Chargers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 HOU @ LAC 20 - 16
Jan 11, 2025 LAC @ HOU 12 - 32
Oct 2, 2022 LAC @ HOU 34 - 24
Dec 26, 2021 LAC @ HOU 29 - 41
Sep 22, 2019 HOU @ LAC 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +34.6% more
Los Angeles: 268.9 vs Houston: 175.9
First Downs (L5) +32.0% more
Los Angeles: 23.4 vs Houston: 15.9
Total Yards (L5) +23.0% more
Los Angeles: 386.3 vs Houston: 297.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.7% more
Los Angeles: 5.8 vs Houston: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 24.5 12
HOU Score 22.0 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 23.4 20.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 175.9 / 268.9 261.0 / 211.0
Rushing Yards 121.5 / 117.4 168.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 297.5 / 386.3 429.0 / 261.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.4 3.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.8 6.1 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAC
HOU
LAC
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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