CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
17-19 | Road
113
INDIANA
PACERSIND
19-18 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
PACERS
100%
BULLS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHI -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
CHI By 1-7 points
27.0%
CHI By 8-14 points
19.0%
IND By 1-7 points
22.7%
IND By 8-14 points
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
117.59
CHICAGO
Indiana
115.34
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Bulls (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.8% more
Chicago: 14.3
vs
Indiana: 10.9
Steals (L5)
+20.5% more
Chicago: 9.4
vs
Indiana: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+10.8% more
Chicago: 47.0
vs
Indiana: 41.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Chicago: 84.0%
vs
Indiana: 80.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
117.6
113
IND Score
115.3
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 38.0
34.5 / 34.3
Assists
28.4 / 29.7
37.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.3
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 45.9
52.0 / 51.2
Free Throw %
80.6 / 84.0
62.5 / 68.4
Rebounding
41.9 / 47.0
46.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.4
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 14.3
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHI
IND
CHI
ML
48%
47-50
56%
54-42
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
ATS
59%
57-40
65%
62-33-1
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
56-40
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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