PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
16-18 | Road
104
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
7-27 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
HORNETS
100%
SUNS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.1%
CHA By 1-7 points
11.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
108.78
PHOENIX
Charlotte
99.12
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
110
PHOENIX
Charlotte
116
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 207.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PHX @ CHA
107 - 127
Mar 8, 2026
CHA @ PHX
99 - 111
Jan 12, 2025
CHA @ PHX
113 - 120
Jan 7, 2025
PHX @ CHA
104 - 115
Mar 15, 2024
PHX @ CHA
107 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.1% more
Phoenix: 6.5
vs
Charlotte: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+22.4% more
Phoenix: 28.8
vs
Charlotte: 22.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Phoenix: 38.3%
vs
Charlotte: 31.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Phoenix: 78.6%
vs
Charlotte: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
108.8
104
CHA Score
99.1
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 38.3
27.7 / 24.2
Assists
22.3 / 28.8
23.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.0 / 6.5
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 47.4
38.8 / 42.4
Free Throw %
72.5 / 78.6
89.7 / 94.7
Rebounding
47.9 / 41.7
59.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.9
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 13.6
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
PHX
CHA
PHX
ML
61%
60-39
57%
60-45
48%
40-44
51%
45-43
ATS
60%
59-40
58%
59-43-3
48%
40-44
51%
45-43
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
61-42-2
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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