Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Mavericks LAL @ DAL

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

20-15  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, Jan 7 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

20-16  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
LAKERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

56.6%

Mavericks Cover

43.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

26.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

18.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

23.5%

DAL By 8-14 points

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
113.71
LOS ANGELES
112.04
DALLAS
Simulated Score
109
LOS ANGELES
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 LAL @ DAL 128 - 134
Feb 12, 2026 DAL @ LAL 104 - 124
Jan 24, 2026 LAL @ DAL 116 - 110
Nov 28, 2025 DAL @ LAL 119 - 129
Oct 15, 2025 DAL @ LAL 121 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Los Angeles: 27.6 vs Dallas: 23.6
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Los Angeles: 84.0% vs Dallas: 74.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Los Angeles: 40.4% vs Dallas: 35.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Los Angeles: 48.4% vs Dallas: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 113.7 97
DAL Score 112.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 40.4 47.4 / 31.4
Assists 23.6 / 27.6 29.0 / 20.0
Blocks 8.0 / 4.6 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 48.4 52.3 / 45.3
Free Throw % 74.6 / 84.0 71.4 / 75.0
Rebounding 45.9 / 43.9 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 13.0 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
LAL
DAL
LAL
ML
62% 63-39
61% 68-43
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
ATS
67% 68-34
61% 67-43-1
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 60-41-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 81-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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