Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Nuggets BOS @ DEN

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

26-10  |  Road

118
FINAL
Tue, Jan 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

20-14  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
CELTICS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

53.3%

Nuggets Cover

46.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

16.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

24.5%

DEN By 8-14 points

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
120.53
BOSTON
119.7
DENVER
Simulated Score
107
BOSTON
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BOS @ DEN 84 - 103
Jan 7, 2026 DEN @ BOS 114 - 110
Mar 2, 2025 DEN @ BOS 103 - 110
Jan 7, 2025 BOS @ DEN 118 - 106
Oct 6, 2024 DEN @ BOS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Boston: 12.5 vs Denver: 9.5
Assists (L5) +53.5% more
Denver: 34.5 vs Boston: 22.5
Steals (L5) +23.1% more
Denver: 9.2 vs Boston: 7.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
Denver: 49.4 vs Boston: 43.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 120.5 118
DEN Score 119.7 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 34.9 38.9 / 34.3
Assists 34.5 / 22.5 22.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.8 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 45.4 46.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 80.3 / 74.3 80.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 49.4 / 43.9 39.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.2 / 7.5 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 12.5 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
BOS
DEN
BOS
ML
54% 57-48
57% 61-46
55% 47-39
53% 47-41
ATS
63% 65-38-2
59% 61-43-3
55% 47-39
53% 47-41
TTL
54% 56-48-1
56% 60-47
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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