Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pistons POR @ DET

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

12-22  |  Road

115
FINAL
Mon, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

17-18  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

60.0%

Pistons Cover

40.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

27.1%

POR By 8-14 points

19.4%

DET By 1-7 points

22.3%

DET By 8-14 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
113.93
PORTLAND
111.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
112
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 DET @ POR 110 - 102
Dec 5, 2025 POR @ DET 116 - 122
Mar 9, 2025 DET @ POR 119 - 112
Jan 6, 2025 POR @ DET 115 - 118
Feb 8, 2024 DET @ POR 128 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Portland: 18.0 vs Detroit: 15.2
Blocks (L5) +11.4% more
Portland: 4.1 vs Detroit: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Portland: 76.9% vs Detroit: 73.8%
Steals (L5) +46.5% more
Detroit: 10.5 vs Portland: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 113.9 115
DET Score 111.4 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 33.8 34.9 / 45.7
Assists 25.1 / 23.3 23.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 48.5 44.7 / 53.3
Free Throw % 73.8 / 76.9 86.4 / 60.0
Rebounding 46.4 / 46.2 45.0 / 38.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.2 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 18.0 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
POR
DET
POR
ML
55% 64-53
53% 56-49
49% 47-49
55% 49-40
ATS
53% 60-54-3
62% 65-39-1
49% 47-49
55% 49-40
TTL
60% 70-46-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 96-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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