Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Grizzlies DAL @ MEM

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

20-15  |  Road

104
FINAL
Mon, Jan 6 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-13  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAVERICKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Memphis)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

23.1%

Grizzlies Cover

76.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DAL By 1-7 points

14.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

5.4%

MEM By 1-7 points

25.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

25.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117.66
DALLAS
125.03
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
114
DALLAS
111
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.4% more
Memphis: 8.2 vs Dallas: 6.3
Assists (L5) +29.9% more
Memphis: 29.8 vs Dallas: 22.9
Turnovers (L5) +29.1% more
Memphis: 19.6 vs Dallas: 15.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Memphis: 48.3 vs Dallas: 43.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 117.7 104
MEM Score 125.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 34.7 34.3 / 36.1
Assists 29.8 / 22.9 24.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.7 / 8.0 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.2 45.5 / 40.8
Free Throw % 77.4 / 75.2 77.1 / 73.3
Rebounding 48.3 / 43.8 55.0 / 50.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.3 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 19.6 / 15.2 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DAL
MEM
DAL
ML
57% 59-44
62% 63-39
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 68-34
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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