CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
7-26 | Road
105
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
30-4 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HORNETS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CHA By 1-7 points
13.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.4%
CLE By 1-7 points
24.9%
CLE By 8-14 points
26.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
110.11
CHARLOTTE
Cleveland
118.59
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
CLE @ CHA
118 - 113
Jan 21, 2026
CLE @ CHA
94 - 87
Dec 22, 2025
CHA @ CLE
132 - 139
Dec 14, 2025
CHA @ CLE
119 - 111
Mar 7, 2025
CLE @ CHA
118 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+39.8% more
Cleveland: 33.6
vs
Charlotte: 24.0
Blocks (L5)
+14.2% more
Cleveland: 6.2
vs
Charlotte: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Cleveland: 40.2%
vs
Charlotte: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Cleveland: 50.6%
vs
Charlotte: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
110.1
105
CLE Score
118.6
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.2 / 29.6
34.9 / 35.7
Assists
33.6 / 24.0
29.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.2 / 5.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 41.3
47.8 / 41.8
Free Throw %
76.4 / 72.0
75.0 / 73.7
Rebounding
46.5 / 47.8
41.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.1
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 16.4
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHA
CLE
CHA
ML
60%
69-46
61%
60-39
56%
55-44
48%
40-44
ATS
67%
75-37-3
60%
59-40
56%
55-44
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
68-47
58%
57-42
100%
99-0
100%
84-0
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