Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Rockets LAL @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

20-14  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

22-12  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
LAKERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.3 points (Houston)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

15.1%

Rockets Cover

84.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LAL By 1-7 points

10.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

3.1%

HOU By 1-7 points

22.6%

HOU By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
104.59
LOS ANGELES
114.93
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
109
LOS ANGELES
114
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.3
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.2% more
Houston: 8.6 vs Los Angeles: 6.1
Assists (L5) +42.7% more
Los Angeles: 28.3 vs Houston: 16.2
Blocks (L5) +12.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.4 vs Houston: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Los Angeles: 38.4% vs Houston: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 104.6 115
HOU Score 114.9 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 38.4 35.0 / 44.4
Assists 16.2 / 28.3 19.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 48.2 47.5 / 48.7
Free Throw % 85.1 / 84.9 57.9 / 82.1
Rebounding 42.8 / 46.4 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.1 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.5 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAL
HOU
LAL
ML
61% 69-44
61% 68-43
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
ATS
62% 70-43
61% 67-43-1
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
TTL
51% 58-55
61% 66-43-2
100% 86-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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