PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
17-17-6 | Road
3
CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
23-14-2 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Tokarski
#34 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dustin Tokarski | None-None | 2.93 | 0.842 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.93
--
Save %
0.842
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
HURRICANES
0%
PENGUINS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)
PIT By 1 goal
10.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
7.4%
CAR By 1 goal
19.6%
CAR By 2-3 goals
32.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.33
PITTSBURGH
Carolina
3.6
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Carolina
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.3
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
CAR @ PIT
5 - 1
Mar 18, 2026
PIT @ CAR
5 - 6
Mar 10, 2026
PIT @ CAR
4 - 5
Dec 30, 2025
CAR @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 5, 2025
PIT @ CAR
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+55.1% more
Carolina: 23.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.8
Takeaways (L5)
+15.5% more
Carolina: 4.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.8%
Carolina: 53.0%
vs
Pittsburgh: 48.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+34.8%
Pittsburgh: 42.6%
vs
Carolina: 7.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.3
3
CAR Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 13.4
11.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
53.0 / 48.2
56.1 / 43.9
Hits
23.0 / 14.8
17.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
782.0 / 4262.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.9 / 28.7
31.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 3.6
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
PIT
CAR
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
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