PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
15-17 | Road
108
INDIANA
PACERSIND
17-18 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
PACERS
100%
SUNS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
26.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
16.7%
IND By 1-7 points
24.5%
IND By 8-14 points
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
113.04
PHOENIX
Indiana
112.21
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PHX @ IND
123 - 108
Nov 13, 2025
IND @ PHX
98 - 133
Jan 4, 2025
PHX @ IND
108 - 126
Dec 19, 2024
IND @ PHX
120 - 111
Jan 26, 2024
PHX @ IND
131 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
Phoenix: 8.2
vs
Indiana: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+23.4% more
Phoenix: 15.1
vs
Indiana: 11.6
Steals (L5)
+17.5% more
Phoenix: 8.8
vs
Indiana: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.3%
Phoenix: 77.9%
vs
Indiana: 67.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
113.0
108
IND Score
112.2
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 32.3
37.5 / 40.0
Assists
29.9 / 25.8
35.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.7 / 8.2
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 44.4
47.9 / 48.7
Free Throw %
67.5 / 77.9
90.5 / 95.2
Rebounding
44.6 / 42.8
47.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.3 / 8.8
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 15.1
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
PHX
IND
PHX
ML
48%
47-50
57%
60-45
54%
45-38
51%
45-43
ATS
59%
57-40
58%
59-43-3
54%
45-38
51%
45-43
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
61-42-2
100%
83-0
100%
88-0
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