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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

11-22  |  Road

105
FINAL
Sat, Jan 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

17-15  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
BUCKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (Milwaukee)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

23.1%

Bucks Cover

76.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

POR By 1-7 points

14.8%

POR By 8-14 points

5.4%

MIL By 1-7 points

25.9%

MIL By 8-14 points

25.7%

AI Model Projected Score
105.18
PORTLAND
112.52
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
114
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bucks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bucks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.3
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 MIL @ POR 99 - 130
Nov 24, 2025 POR @ MIL 115 - 103
Jan 28, 2025 MIL @ POR 112 - 125
Jan 4, 2025 POR @ MIL 105 - 102
Jan 31, 2024 MIL @ POR 116 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Milwaukee: 8.1 vs Portland: 7.3
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
Milwaukee: 46.0 vs Portland: 41.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Milwaukee: 34.8% vs Portland: 32.6%
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Portland: 17.9 vs Milwaukee: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 105.2 105
MIL Score 112.5 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 32.6 31.7 / 36.1
Assists 24.6 / 24.5 25.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 48.6 43.2 / 48.2
Free Throw % 75.6 / 77.0 77.8 / 76.9
Rebounding 46.0 / 41.9 43.0 / 55.0
Steals 8.1 / 7.3 14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 17.9 11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
POR
MIL
POR
ML
64% 61-35
53% 56-49
60% 49-32
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 65-31
62% 65-39-1
60% 49-32
55% 49-40
TTL
55% 53-43
56% 58-46-1
100% 81-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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