BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
25-9 | Road
109
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
22-11 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
CELTICS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
25.9%
BOS By 8-14 points
25.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
14.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
118.74
BOSTON
Houston
111.41
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Boston
121
BOSTON
Houston
109
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.3
D
Sim
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
BOS @ HOU
114 - 93
Nov 1, 2025
HOU @ BOS
128 - 101
Jan 27, 2025
HOU @ BOS
114 - 112
Jan 3, 2025
BOS @ HOU
109 - 86
Jan 21, 2024
BOS @ HOU
116 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.8% more
Boston: 5.3
vs
Houston: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+28.6% more
Boston: 27.8
vs
Houston: 19.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Boston: 39.4%
vs
Houston: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Boston: 49.4%
vs
Houston: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
118.7
109
HOU Score
111.4
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 39.4
27.8 / 48.7
Assists
19.8 / 27.8
9.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.3
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 49.4
36.4 / 50.6
Free Throw %
77.7 / 68.1
100.0 / 66.7
Rebounding
45.7 / 42.2
37.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 9.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
61%
69-44
57%
61-46
59%
51-35
53%
47-41
ATS
62%
70-43
59%
61-43-3
59%
51-35
53%
47-41
TTL
51%
58-55
56%
60-47
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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