Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Mavericks CLE @ DAL

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

29-4  |  Road

134
FINAL
Fri, Jan 3 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

20-14  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
CAVALIERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

72.0%

Mavericks Cover

28.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

26.9%

CLE By 8-14 points

24.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

17.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
122.71
CLEVELAND
116.88
DALLAS
Simulated Score
108
CLEVELAND
114
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 239.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 DAL @ CLE 130 - 120
Mar 13, 2026 CLE @ DAL 138 - 105
Feb 2, 2025 DAL @ CLE 101 - 144
Jan 3, 2025 CLE @ DAL 134 - 122
Feb 27, 2024 DAL @ CLE 119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.5% more
Cleveland: 31.3 vs Dallas: 19.9
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
Cleveland: 46.8 vs Dallas: 39.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Cleveland: 77.1% vs Dallas: 72.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Cleveland: 41.5% vs Dallas: 38.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 122.7 134
DAL Score 116.9 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 41.5 27.3 / 37.5
Assists 19.9 / 31.3 29.0 / 38.0
Blocks 10.0 / 5.8 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 49.3 43.0 / 53.1
Free Throw % 72.8 / 77.1 80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 46.8 53.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.2 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 12.6 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CLE
DAL
CLE
ML
62% 63-39
60% 69-46
54% 44-37
56% 55-44
ATS
67% 68-34
67% 75-37-3
54% 44-37
56% 55-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
59% 68-47
100% 81-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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