Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Kings MEM @ SAC

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-11  |  Road

133
FINAL
Fri, Jan 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

15-19  |  Home

138
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Sacramento)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

39.6%

Kings Cover

60.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MEM By 1-7 points

22.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

11.2%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120.09
MEMPHIS
122.74
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
105
MEMPHIS
102
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Sacramento: 83.6% vs Memphis: 76.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Sacramento: 46.3% vs Memphis: 44.0%
Blocks (L5) +43.4% more
Memphis: 5.7 vs Sacramento: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.5% more
Memphis: 18.3 vs Sacramento: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 120.1 133
SAC Score 122.7 138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 35.9 44.7 / 45.9
Assists 26.1 / 29.7 32.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.7 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 44.0 49.5 / 48.3
Free Throw % 83.6 / 76.2 82.6 / 83.3
Rebounding 47.0 / 50.8 37.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.2 / 9.3 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 18.3 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MEM
SAC
MEM
ML
55% 55-45
57% 59-44
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
TTL
58% 57-42-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 3 hours ago
Joel Embiid: The X-Factor in Philadelphia's Star-Studded Lineup
si 2 days, 3 hours ago
LeBron James Joins Star-Studded 76ers: Inside the First Week of …
players_bio 2 days, 8 hours ago
Lakers Preseason: Luka Dončić Shines, Bronny James Contributes i…
bleacherreport 2 days, 20 hours ago
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
yahoo 3 days, 3 hours ago