Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Lakers ATL @ LAL

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

18-16  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Jan 3 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

19-14  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
HAWKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Los Angeles)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

25.7%

Lakers Cover

74.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

ATL By 1-7 points

16.1%

ATL By 8-14 points

6.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

26.5%

LAL By 8-14 points

24.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112.35
ATLANTA
118.87
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
107
ATLANTA
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 ATL @ LAL 116 - 141
Nov 8, 2025 LAL @ ATL 102 - 122
Jan 3, 2025 ATL @ LAL 102 - 119
Dec 6, 2024 LAL @ ATL 132 - 134
Mar 18, 2024 ATL @ LAL 105 - 136
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +12.3%
Los Angeles: 87.4% vs Atlanta: 75.2%
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Atlanta: 12.5 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +32.3% more
Atlanta: 5.4 vs Los Angeles: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +20.3% more
Atlanta: 15.4 vs Los Angeles: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 112.4 102
LAL Score 118.9 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 38.4 43.3 / 17.6
Assists 28.5 / 31.8 28.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 48.1 48.9 / 41.0
Free Throw % 87.4 / 75.2 80.0 / 77.8
Rebounding 41.6 / 43.6 56.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.2 / 12.5 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 15.4 19.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
ATL
LAL
ATL
ML
61% 68-43
50% 52-52
54% 49-42
55% 48-40
ATS
61% 67-43-1
53% 55-48-1
54% 49-42
55% 48-40
TTL
61% 66-43-2
53% 55-48-1
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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