INDIANA
PACERSIND
16-18 | Road
128
MIAMI
HEATMIA
17-14 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
HEAT
100%
PACERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
25.7%
IND By 8-14 points
15.9%
MIA By 1-7 points
25.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
115.65
INDIANA
Miami
115.29
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Miami
117
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
MIA @ IND
118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026
MIA @ IND
99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025
IND @ MIA
116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025
IND @ MIA
120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025
IND @ MIA
128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.4% more
Indiana: 5.1
vs
Miami: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Indiana: 47.3
vs
Miami: 42.4
Steals (L5)
+18.3% more
Miami: 7.6
vs
Indiana: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.1%
Miami: 81.2%
vs
Indiana: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
115.7
128
MIA Score
115.3
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 35.9
42.3 / 42.5
Assists
26.2 / 27.4
34.0 / 35.0
Blocks
2.7 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 47.4
57.3 / 53.1
Free Throw %
81.2 / 73.1
85.7 / 56.3
Rebounding
42.4 / 47.3
39.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.4
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 13.3
16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
IND
MIA
IND
ML
48%
46-50
48%
47-50
59%
48-34
54%
45-38
ATS
51%
49-47
59%
57-40
59%
48-34
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
57-39
54%
52-45
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
Miami Heat Attempt 40 3-Pointers in a Single Half During Intrasq…
Stephen A. Smith Sounds Alarm: James Dolan Could Derail Knicks' …