Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Lakers POR @ LAL

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

11-21  |  Road

106
FINAL
Thu, Jan 2 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

18-14  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Los Angeles)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

19.2%

Lakers Cover

80.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

POR By 1-7 points

12.6%

POR By 8-14 points

4.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

24.6%

LAL By 8-14 points

26.7%

AI Model Projected Score
102.73
PORTLAND
111.43
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
117
PORTLAND
113
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim Trail Blazers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 LAL @ POR 116 - 132
Nov 3, 2025 LAL @ POR 123 - 115
Oct 27, 2025 POR @ LAL 122 - 108
Apr 13, 2025 LAL @ POR 81 - 109
Feb 20, 2025 LAL @ POR 110 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 27.7 vs Portland: 24.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.8%
Los Angeles: 84.7% vs Portland: 74.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Los Angeles: 36.5% vs Portland: 31.7%
Turnovers (L5) +33.5% more
Portland: 17.9 vs Los Angeles: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 102.7 106
LAL Score 111.4 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 31.7 34.9 / 34.6
Assists 27.7 / 24.7 30.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 47.9 45.7 / 50.0
Free Throw % 84.7 / 74.9 92.9 / 81.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 41.8 43.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.9 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 17.9 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
POR
LAL
POR
ML
61% 68-43
53% 56-49
54% 49-42
55% 49-40
ATS
61% 67-43-1
62% 65-39-1
54% 49-42
55% 49-40
TTL
61% 66-43-2
56% 58-46-1
100% 91-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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