MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
23-11-4 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
25-10-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Marc-Andre Fleury
#29 | G@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury | None-None | 2.78 | 0.903 | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.78 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.78
GAA
2.78
0.903
Save %
Ldr 0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
0%
CAPITALS
100%
WILD
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1 goal
18.1%
MIN By 2-3 goals
20.5%
WSH By 1 goal
16.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
2.47
MINNESOTA
Washington
2.3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wild
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wild (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Wild (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
WSH @ MIN
0 - 5
Oct 17, 2025
MIN @ WSH
1 - 5
Mar 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
2 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
MIN @ WSH
4 - 3
Jan 23, 2024
WSH @ MIN
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+15.3% more
Minnesota: 4.1
vs
Washington: 3.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.9% more
Minnesota: 29.7
vs
Washington: 25.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.6%
Minnesota: 51.5%
vs
Washington: 47.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+30.6% more
Washington: 18.4
vs
Minnesota: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
2.5
4
WSH Score
2.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.4 / 14.1
16.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
47.9 / 51.5
63.6 / 36.4
Hits
22.3 / 20.2
16.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
42.7 / 18.6
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 29.7
31.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 4.1
1.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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