Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Falcons CAR @ ATL

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

4-12  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

8-8  |  Home

38
Key Game
Thomas Incoom
KEY GAME

Thomas Incoom

#48 | Linebacker
@
Charlie Woerner
KEY GAME

Charlie Woerner

#89 | Tight End
Player
Thomas Incoom None-None
Charlie Woerner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
FALCONS
0%
PANTHERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Atlanta)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

31.3%

Falcons Cover

68.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CAR By 1-6 points

13.0%

CAR By 7-13 points

9.7%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16.29
CAROLINA
23.1
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
28
CAROLINA
27
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CAR @ ATL 34 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CAR @ ATL 30 - 27
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ CAR 0 - 30
Jan 5, 2025 CAR @ ATL 44 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 ATL @ CAR 38 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
Atlanta: 1.4 vs Carolina: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Atlanta: 133.0 vs Carolina: 107.3
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
Atlanta: 21.2 vs Carolina: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Atlanta: 341.2 vs Carolina: 283.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 16.3 44
ATL Score 23.1 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 17.1 31.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 208.2 / 175.8 310.0 / 270.0
Rushing Yards 133.0 / 107.3 227.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 341.2 / 283.1 537.0 / 425.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.0 7.0 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CAR
ATL
CAR
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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