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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

4-12  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

7-9  |  Home

26
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
COLTS
100%
JAGUARS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

55.4%

Colts Cover

44.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

16.8%

IND By 1-6 points

15.8%

IND By 7-13 points

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20.11
JACKSONVILLE
18.21
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
27
JACKSONVILLE
30
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.9
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 17
Dec 7, 2025 IND @ JAX 19 - 36
Jan 5, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 26
Oct 6, 2024 IND @ JAX 34 - 37
Oct 15, 2023 IND @ JAX 20 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +92.8% more
Indianapolis: 2.4 vs Jacksonville: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +74.5% more
Indianapolis: 173.3 vs Jacksonville: 99.3
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Indianapolis: 380.8 vs Jacksonville: 312.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.5% more
Indianapolis: 5.8 vs Jacksonville: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 20.1 23
IND Score 18.2 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 17.9 24.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 207.5 / 213.0 252.0 / 206.0
Rushing Yards 173.3 / 99.3 177.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 380.8 / 312.3 429.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.1 5.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
JAX
IND
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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