Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Cardinals SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-10  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 4:25 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

7-9  |  Home

47
Key Game
Naquan Jones
KEY GAME

Naquan Jones

#50 | Defensive Tackle
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Naquan Jones None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
49ERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

66.0%

Cardinals Cover

34.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

16.7%

SF By 7-13 points

18.9%

ARI By 1-6 points

13.7%

ARI By 7-13 points

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24.27
SAN FRANCISCO
18.48
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
SAN FRANCISCO
17
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim 49ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 30 - 36
Nov 16, 2025 SF @ ARI 41 - 22
Sep 21, 2025 ARI @ SF 15 - 16
Jan 5, 2025 SF @ ARI 24 - 47
Oct 6, 2024 ARI @ SF 24 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.3% more
San Francisco: 283.8 vs Arizona: 237.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.3% more
San Francisco: 6.4 vs Arizona: 5.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +62.7% more
Arizona: 145.3 vs San Francisco: 89.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 24.3 24
ARI Score 18.5 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 21.3 26.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 237.4 / 283.8 242.0 / 298.0
Rushing Yards 145.3 / 89.3 151.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 382.7 / 373.1 393.0 / 436.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.4 6.3 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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