DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
20-12 | Road
100
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
13-19 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
KINGS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
27.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
22.2%
SAC By 1-7 points
19.6%
SAC By 8-14 points
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112.09
DALLAS
Sacramento
107.72
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Dallas
108
DALLAS
Sacramento
114
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
SAC @ DAL
130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026
DAL @ SAC
100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025
DAL @ SAC
107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025
DAL @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025
SAC @ DAL
122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.5% more
Dallas: 7.1
vs
Sacramento: 3.7
Steals (L5)
+13.9% more
Dallas: 7.2
vs
Sacramento: 6.2
Turnovers (L5)
+12.8% more
Dallas: 13.6
vs
Sacramento: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Dallas: 85.0%
vs
Sacramento: 77.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.1
100
SAC Score
107.7
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 37.5
31.3 / 38.7
Assists
28.3 / 22.0
25.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.7 / 7.1
1.0 / 13.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 46.6
42.0 / 42.1
Free Throw %
77.2 / 85.0
84.2 / 82.8
Rebounding
43.0 / 41.6
58.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.2
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 13.6
16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DAL
SAC
DAL
ML
55%
55-45
62%
63-39
61%
50-32
54%
44-37
ATS
54%
52-45-3
67%
68-34
61%
50-32
54%
44-37
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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