Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Celtics IND @ BOS

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-17  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 6:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

23-8  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
PACERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Boston)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

22.2%

Celtics Cover

77.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

IND By 1-7 points

14.3%

IND By 8-14 points

5.2%

BOS By 1-7 points

25.7%

BOS By 8-14 points

25.9%

AI Model Projected Score
113.69
INDIANA
121.33
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
116
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 IND @ BOS 104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026 BOS @ IND 96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025 BOS @ IND 140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025 IND @ BOS 95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024 IND @ BOS 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.9% more
Boston: 7.8 vs Indiana: 5.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
Boston: 50.2 vs Indiana: 44.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Boston: 78.2% vs Indiana: 76.3%
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Indiana: 28.6 vs Boston: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 113.7 123
BOS Score 121.3 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 34.8 29.6 / 39.1
Assists 25.3 / 28.6 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.3 / 5.2 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 46.9 46.2 / 52.9
Free Throw % 78.2 / 76.3 63.2 / 81.5
Rebounding 50.2 / 44.0 41.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 12.0 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
IND
BOS
IND
ML
57% 61-46
48% 47-50
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
ATS
59% 61-43-3
59% 57-40
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
TTL
56% 60-47
54% 52-45
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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